Let’s make a comparison: Japan has 589 cars per 1,000 people, while China has 88 cars; Japan has an average of 199 cars per square kilometer of land, while China has only 12 cars. It can be seen how great the potential of China’s auto market is! According to the experience of developed countries, there are two situations in which car ownership tends to be saturated: First, with the development of society, cars have been fully popularized, and the number of new car buyers will no longer increase; second, public transportation is highly developed and more Convenient, the car is no longer a necessary means of transportation. For China, it will obviously take a long time for both of these conditions to appear. As for the specific growth rate of China’s auto production and sales in the future, I think it depends on factors such as the speed of economic development, industrial policies, and changes in consumer psychology. But there is no need to be pessimistic, we can speak with data. Last year’s sales volume was 22 million, and this year may reach 24.5 million. According to an annual growth rate of 9%, it will naturally be 40 million by 2020. Even if the growth rate is discounted, it can reach 35 million vehicles.
At present, the automobile industry is also encountering many constraints, such as energy shortage, traffic congestion, smog and other problems are becoming more and more serious. The government’s increasingly stringent regulations and restrictions on purchases and purchases have indeed brought unprecedented challenges to the development of the automobile industry. However, these external factors are not insurmountable, and for companies that can develop their internal skills and actively respond, the challenge is also an opportunity. Among them, the importance of controlling core technologies is becoming more and more obvious. Let me talk about my judgment on the future development trend of automobile technology:
First of all, security technology will attract more and more attention in the future. Passive safety is becoming more refined, active safety will continue to be greatly improved, and the mutual integration of passive and active safety technologies will become more and more obvious. In the future, automobiles will continue to advance from the ultimate goal of “zero deaths” to “zero casualties” and then to “zero accidents”. At the same time, the advancement of intelligent driving technology will become faster and faster. Although it may take time to complete unmanned driving, autonomous driving under regional and partial working conditions will be applied as a core safety technology. And these security technologies will be closely integrated with the progress of language recognition systems, data information exchange systems, and IT network technologies.
Second, the importance of energy-saving technology is highlighted. In fact, there is only one problem that can really restrict the development of automobiles in the future, and that is energy. At present, China’s oil imports are close to the 60% red line, and the pressure of oil shortage is very high. For this reason, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has clearly proposed the implementation of a 5-liter fuel consumption regulation by 2020. This is a very stringent indicator, especially for local companies. The challenge is extremely difficult. At present, the powertrain technology of many domestic enterprises still needs to be improved, and new energy technologies are still in the ascendant. In addition to optimizing engines and heat exchangers, the huge potential of lightweight, electronic, and intelligent technologies in the field of fuel saving remains to be More development. For example, a general passenger car usually only needs to reduce its weight by 10% to save 7% of its fuel consumption. Therefore, in the future, OEMs will choose parts and components not only to see who is cheaper and more durable, but also to see who is lighter. In short, energy-saving requirements are likely to bring all-round changes to the Chinese automobile industry from complete vehicles to parts, from vehicle manufacturing to vehicle use.
Three, environmental protection technology will also become a core technology that enterprises cannot ignore, because the pressure of pollution will make environmental protection a veto item. At present, the country has introduced material recycling laws and regulations. In the design process, it is necessary to consider how to disassemble and recycle in the future. This is not only a huge challenge for automakers, but also for component manufacturers. Emission control, noise control, and air quality in the car will all be paid more and more attention.
After *, the application of electronic technology in automobiles will increase exponentially. It is estimated that by 2015, an average of 40% of car costs will be used for car electronics. A new round of technological revolution characterized by informatization, digitization, big data, cloud computing, etc. is emerging, and automobiles will become one of the best carriers for applying these *new technological achievements, such as in-vehicle infotainment systems, car networking technology, and intelligence. Chemical technology will lead the direction of future technological development. The future of automobiles will show the trend of “five modernizations”, namely, diversified functions, integrated control, platform development, system networking, and technology integration.
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Link to this article：Analysis: the three major development trends of future automotive technology
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